Below are some of my random learning’s summarised along with Reading list for this week and some of most read article in 2016
We humans are absolutely amazing, time and again we make the same mistake and we still indulge in the same. Everyone working in the stock market pretty much laughs at roadside astrologer but we ourselves indulge in forecasting & predicting right from company financials to indices closing to even what PM Modi would do next to curb black money or revive the economy. After almost 2.5yrs under the rule of PM, if there is one thing that I have learned or relearned is “Nobody has a clue what he is thinking or thinking of doing”. I thought this was important to get out of the way before we begin next year and here are my forecast 😀
So how would _________ be in 2017 (fill from below-given options) and you have answer along with it
- Sensex & Nifty – I think it will fluctuate (courtesy Mr J P Morgan)
- 10 year G-sec – I have absolutely no clue
- Crude – as market decides
- Rs – US$ – depreciation is destiny of Rupee (Nilesh Shah Kotak AMC)
- Inflation & GDP – either ahead or below RBI target
- Next boom sector – Nobody has clue about it, but mostly that sector has not performed or has been off the radar.
- Next bust sector – Probably where there is lots of debt?
These days lot of our work can be done with help of app, now go back and check out all SciFi movies how many of them predicted it, I think none. So there are something’s neither movies nor literature/books would be able to predict.
Consider this currently, the government is pushing for the digital transaction. However, one look at our population and their education level it might be bit challenging to implement. Second as time goes by tech improves things change, as one gets older one can’t expect senior citizen people to learn new tech at their age (speaking from personal experience). Hence we need to quickly educate large mass about using new tech or have some other kind of tech that is friendly & scalable across a wide spectrum. That is probably we would move towards voice-based command or any other better alternative. One probably good thing about demonetization is a lot of people went into the bank, traditionally villagers, uneducated, illiterate masses are afraid of people in suit/tie. Hopefully, if they carried a positive experience during the whole process, expect them not to return to the bank to withdraw it (most forecaster expects, all money deposited would again be pulled out sooner or later). Meaning an increase in CASA ratio and more increase in usage of formal financing channels.
In stock market patient is truly the key strength one can possess and this again got reinforced during my recent trip to Ranthambore National Park. We spent almost 10-12hrs in the jungle over a span of 1.5 days and got to view tiger for 5mins. Which is sort of buying stock and waiting for 3-5 years before it starts delivery result/performance.
Few of things I would personally recommend to my readers – Do read “The Power of Habit by Charles Duhigg”, amazing book.
Wish you and your family a very Happy New Year
Read, Learn, Improve – 31-Dec-16
(Must read) A Portrait Of The Investing Columnist As A (Very) Young Man – Link here
How an Indian tycoon built world’s largest air cooler company – giving shareholders massive returns – Link here
As Indian surgeons make monthly visits to the Gulf to practice, are patients getting a fair deal? – Link here
The Tesla Advantage: 1.3 Billion Miles of Data – Link here
How Americans Spend Their Money – Link here
Painkiller companies are now globally exporting addiction for profit — just like Big Tobacco – Link here
How “open source” seed producers from the US to India are changing global food production – Link here
13 Things You Should Give Up If You Want To Be Successful – Link here
THE COBALT PIPELINE – Tracing the path from deadly hand-dug mines in Congo to consumers’ phones and laptops – Link here
What You Can Learn about Business from a Dozen Lines in the Godfather – Link here
Nine economic lessons from 2016 – Link here
Back to the future – Ray Dalio, founder, Bridgewater Associates, explains why the 1930s hold clues to what lies ahead for the economy – Link here
In Pursuit of a 10,000% Return – Link here
The World Nears Peak Fossil Fuels for Electricity – Link here
I managed to watch this video while travelling and it gives you interesting insight into business model of AIB – Tanmay Bhat #mystory: Business behind Bakchodi @TiE SmashUp – Link here
Most read stories of the year
How the Sahara Group fought to prevent a book about its business being published – Link here
Liquid assets: how the business of bottled water went mad – Link here
Why Luck Plays a Big Role in Making You Rich – Link here
The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s 41-Year U.S. Debt Secret – Link here
How good is it? How bad is it? – Modi, as a Delhi outsider, has shut down access to power and its benefits – Link here
The Questions That Matter – And the questions that don’t – Link here
This cartoon explains how the rich got rich and the poor got poor – Link here
The Greatest Bubble of All-Time? – Link here
There has never been a country that should have been so rich but ended up this poor – Link here
A day in the life of India – Link here