(Must Read) The most hated bull market of all time? – Link here
Lot of the rally in market has driven by global rally, which in turn has a lot been driven by rally in US indices, here is interesting reason why this rally may just poop (or rather it has already started), whole letter (from which I have taken) is good read here is the most interesting thing I found.
“recent years’ low borrowing costs have encouraged corporates to take on more debt. That has benefitted EPS growth, as much of the additional debt has been spent on stock buybacks. Given overall financial leverage in US industry, even a modest rise in interest rates in 2018 could force companies to pay down debt.
Furthermore, Trump’s tax reform incentivises US corporates to pay down debt, as a cap on interest deductibility is being introduced. When exceeding 30% of EBITDA (through 2021) or EBIT (starting in 2022), interest expenses will no longer be deductible. That could cause a meaningful number of US corporates – particularly small-cap corporates – to switch their attention from buybacks to debt reduction.
US companies have been the biggest buyer of US stocks since the financial crisis, and a change in corporate habits could have a meaningful impact on US equity returns. You should also know that, in addition to the companies included in Exhibit 6, another 5-10% of US corporates have debt-to-EBITDA in the high twenties. Those companies would probably also slow down their buyback activities.”
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