The Long shot – when will business be allowed to open.
I think by now it’s clear that Corona is not going away in any hurry. If anything my guess is it will remain here for another 12-18 month very easily and we would have learned to live with it. Given such a long time, nobody can afford to keep economy shut for such extended time. So what will happen?
I think government has already started ball rolling by selectively allowing business to remain open and that will only increase as time goes, but at very slow pace. It looks like most laughed about solution “herd immunity” seems to be gaining acceptance because of economic pressure, like lot of business leaders said, more people might die of hunger than corona.
Another way is business themselves will come up with solution. Like, currently restaurants are shut because gathering can lead to spread of virus. What if restaurant reduces number of tables, increases spacing and also increase price of dishes. Of course, people might balk at increased prices but don’t forget same person who previously used to visit restaurant every weekend or once every two weeks has not been there since last 4-5 weekend and not been out too much at all. So one is, innate human desire to go out which will force all to go out but prices will probably keep lot at a bay. But still we may have few who wouldn’t mind and that’s how things start to get normalize. Same can be done for multiplex or movies will go straight to TV with help of OTTs like Netflix, Disney, Zee5, etc. by the way Oscar recently modified their rules, films released only on streaming platforms or video on demand would be eligible for Academy Awards next year. The temporary change, which will apply only for next year’s Oscars and will lapse once movie theaters reopen.
Travel is essential for business and leisure, but if social distancing had to be maintain only 2 seats would be available for sale in 3 x 3 seat plane, ticket prices would hit the roof, for starters that may be ok with business travel but can be expensive for small and medium enterprises. Some airline are seeking alternate seat and keeping gap, so basically 1/3rd of seats are kept being empty. Needless to say ticket prices still remain on higher side due to low traffic and high fixed cost to cover, but start has been made. Other solution is whole body suit. What if everyone wore whole body suit to keep virus at bay but then identifying person and security becomes risky. Whole body X-ray and thermal scanning can help up lot (lot of international airport have touchless security, that is body scanner, if you clear you go or security does body check. But for identification purposes I wonder if everybody moves to bio-metric model, which anyway few of developed nation have already started doing it. That way one can keep wearing whole body suit and still have Q&A with immigration officer and confirm identity through bio-metric scan to confirm identity. Needless to say, doctor’s certificate would become mandatory requirement for travel and check in time would be anywhere in region of 2-4hrs (additional to prior) before departure to avoid rush and control crowd.
Other small possibility, if travelers themselves prefer to take road for long distance journey even thought it may mean very long travel time. Such culture is very prevalent in USA.
Similarly other business will come up with such rules that will take into account social distancing and other safety precautions, but at the same time pricing will increase to compensate for the same.
Basically we are looking at lower demand, higher pricing scenario of products & services.
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